Media Release - 14 September 2025

GOLD PRICE PREDICTIONS JUST GUESSES:SURBITON

With gold prices in US and Australian dollars reaching record highs recently, many analysts are forecasting prices that might be reached by the end of 2025, or in some cases, in 2026.

These predictions range widely, from the optimistic with rising prices, to the pessimistic where prices are predicted to fall. In extreme cases some analysts even quote their predicted gold price accurate to a single US cent. It seems likely that in many cases the author or fund manager is probably just seeking media attention.

“Unfortunately, any estimate can only be a guess,” said Dr Sandra Close, a director of Melbourne-based gold consultants, Surbiton Associates. “Predictions might be based on analysts’ best estimates but when it is all boiled down, they are still only best guesses.”

“It is impossible to predict the future,” Dr Close said. “That is why Surbiton has never, ever predicted gold prices. We are very conscious of how many times sudden price changes have occurred historically due to economic or political shocks and market dislocations.”

Technical analysts use a whole range of methods to substantiate their claims and forecasts, to make them look ‘scientific.’ Such techniques include using graphs and charts, trend-lines, support and resistance levels, Fibonacci analysis, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) oscillators, etc.

“While graphs are excellent for showing where the price has been in the past, they cannot tell you where prices will go,” she said. “It is a little like trying to steer a car forwards by only looking in the rear vision mirror.”

“If you could successfully predict the future, you would become very rich,” Dr Close said. “Carried to extremes you would eventually end up with all the money in the world.”

She suggested that investors should ask themselves, ‘If these people are so good at predicting the future, why are they working for somebody else? Why are they not working for themselves? Perhaps they might then become so rich they could help solve the huge problems of the real world – such as the war in the Middle East, the Russian- Ukraine conflict and the US debt problem?’

At the big Diggers & Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie some years ago, billionaire Canadian mining identity Robert Friedland¹ spoke about the development of Oyu Tolgoi, the huge copper-gold porphyry deposit in Mongolia.

“He was asked to predict the price of copper,” Dr Close said." I cannot remember his exact words but in front of a packed, mostly male, audience, as best I can remember, Robert Friedland replied,

‘You are asking me to predict the future. No one can predict the future, (pause) with the exception of God. Only God knows the future but remember, She may change her mind.’

“His thought-provoking reply went completely over the heads of most of the audience,” Dr Close said.